Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has recently expressed a pessimistic outlook on the Bitcoin price in the near future. In his X profile, Hayes revealed that he is aiming for the price of BTC to drop below $50k this weekend. He mentioned that he took a short position in the market and humorously asked for prayers for his soul, referring to himself as a “degen.” While Hayes did not provide specific reasons for his prediction, it seems to coincide with the upcoming release of significant US economic indicators.
The US jobs data has emerged as a key factor influencing financial markets in recent times. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter have pointed out the growing impact of unemployment data on Federal Reserve policies. They indicated that prediction markets are now pricing in the possibility of 4 rate cuts in 2024 or a total of 100 bps of cuts, which has not been seen since the August 5th crash. The relationship between labor market data, unemployment rates, and Fed policy decisions has become increasingly pronounced and pivotal.
Today’s jobs report will play a crucial role in determining whether the US Federal Reserve will opt for a 50 bps or 25 bps interest rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting. If the jobs report aligns with expectations or exceeds them, analysts believe that a 25 bps rate cut is likely. The recent data on job openings in the US has painted a grim picture, with a significant decline in available positions since earlier this year. The deteriorating labor market situation is a cause for concern and has contributed to the negative sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
Renowned trader Peter Brandt has also weighed in on the situation, highlighting an “inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone” pattern in Bitcoin’s weekly chart. Brandt emphasized the possibility of Bitcoin testing a lower boundary around $46,000, indicating a prevalence of selling pressure over buying interest in the market. He suggested that a strong bullish movement would be required to steer the bull market back towards new all-time highs. The overall sentiment in the market seems to be influenced by a combination of weakening economic data and revised forecasts.
The Bitcoin market is facing a challenging period characterized by uncertainties surrounding US economic indicators, particularly the jobs report. The projections and analyses provided by experts like Arthur Hayes and Peter Brandt underscore the prevailing bearish outlook on the Bitcoin price, with the possibility of a dip below $50k looming. Investors and traders are advised to closely monitor the upcoming developments in the economic landscape and their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.