Bitcoin may have faced challenges in surpassing its recent all-time high of over $73,000, but brokerage firm Bernstein remains bullish about the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. In a recent report, analysts at Bernstein have revised their long-term price forecast for BTC to $200,000 by the end of 2025, up from their previous prediction of $150,000 for the same period. The firm’s optimistic outlook is primarily driven by the anticipated growth of approved and regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs, with major asset managers like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity expected to see significant inflows over the coming years. Bernstein estimates that these regulated investment vehicles could collectively hold around $190 billion in assets by 2025, a substantial increase from the current $60 billion. The firm sees the launch of these funds as a pivotal event that will attract traditional institutional capital to the crypto markets, projecting that spot Bitcoin ETFs could represent approximately 7% of the total circulating BTC supply by the end of 2025.
The Role of Bitcoin Halving and Bull Market Cycle
Bernstein’s report also highlights the impact of the recent halving event on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has entered a new bull market cycle. The halving event has reduced the natural sell-pressure from miners by half, leading to a supply shortage as new catalysts for demand emerge, resulting in exponential price movements. The analysts foresee new catalysts driving further demand for Bitcoin in the future, contributing to its upward price trajectory. In line with this analysis, Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025 and potentially hit $1 million by 2033. Furthermore, they anticipate that ETFs tracking Bitcoin will represent nearly 15% of the total supply by 2033, indicating a significant influx of institutional capital into the cryptocurrency space.
Institutional Adoption and MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Holdings
The increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin is exemplified by companies like MicroStrategy, which has become one of the largest institutional holders of the digital asset. Over the past four years, MicroStrategy has pursued an aggressive accumulation strategy, amassing a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s total global supply. Founder Michael Saylor’s firm now holds approximately 1.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, underscoring the growing interest among institutional investors in the cryptocurrency. MicroStrategy’s recent announcement of offering convertible senior notes to boost its Bitcoin holdings further solidifies its commitment to accumulating more of the digital asset. Bernstein projects that by 2025, MicroStrategy’s holdings could represent 1.5% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, reflecting the company’s long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin.
Bernstein’s optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the increasing institutional adoption of the cryptocurrency signal a positive outlook for the digital asset. With the growth of regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs and the emergence of new demand catalysts, Bitcoin’s value proposition continues to attract institutional investors and market participants. As the cryptocurrency market evolves and matures, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value and alternative investment is likely to gain further traction, paving the way for sustained growth in the coming years.
