In a recent report, investment management firm VanEck has made some bold predictions for the year 2024. According to VanEck, not only will Bitcoin reach new all-time highs, but the NFT market will also experience a peak, marking a significant transformation in the industry.
VanEck predicts that Bitcoin will hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024, precisely three years after its last peak in November 2021. This optimism is based on the expectation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will become less adversarial towards Bitcoin, thus paving the way for increased adoption and investment.
One of the key factors that VanEck believes will contribute to Bitcoin’s surge is the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs, once approved, will provide institutional and mainstream investors with an accessible and regulated way to invest in Bitcoin. VanEck suggests that the launch of these ETFs may coincide with a U.S. recession, adding further impetus to Bitcoin’s rise.
Interestingly, VanEck also notes that the forthcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024 may not have as significant an impact as previously anticipated. Halving events reduce the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, but VanEck suggests that this time around, unprofitable miners may disengage, allowing more cost-efficient miners to gain a larger market share.
Ether’s Performance and the Rise of Solana
While Ether has been a strong performer in recent years, VanEck predicts that it will not surpass Bitcoin in performance until after the halving event. However, Ether is expected to outperform other cryptocurrencies for the year, though a complete “flippening” is not expected.
In terms of market share, VanEck projects that Ether may experience a decrease as other smart contract platforms, such as Solana, gain traction. Solana has been praised for its scalability roadmap, which is seen as clearer and less uncertain compared to Ether’s. As a result, VanEck anticipates that Solana and similar platforms will attract more users and investors, potentially diminishing Ether’s dominance.
VanEck also sees significant changes in the centralized exchange market. Following Binance’s $4 billion settlement with U.S. regulators, VanEck predicts that Binance will relinquish its position as the top centralized exchange by volumes. Competitors such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget, backed by substantial funding, are expected to contend for the leading spot.
Specifically, VanEck highlights Coinbase’s international futures market as one to watch. The firm believes that Coinbase’s daily trading volume will exceed $1 billion, a substantial increase from the approximately $200 million per day seen in November 2023. This growth is expected to be driven by increased regulatory scrutiny on Binance and traders seeking alternative platforms.
The Rise of Decentralized Exchanges and Improved Wallets
VanEck also anticipates the continued growth of decentralized exchanges (DEX) in the cryptocurrency market. The firm expects the market share of spot cryptocurrency trading on DEXs to reach unprecedented levels. This growth will be fueled by the enhanced on-chain trading experience facilitated by high-throughput chains like Solana.
Additionally, VanEck highlights the adoption of significantly improved wallets as a crucial factor in driving on-chain transactions and embracing self-custody solutions. These wallets, integrating “account abstraction” as a key feature, will enable automated payments and make it easier for users to transact securely on the blockchain.
VanEck’s predictions for 2024 paint a bullish picture for Bitcoin and the NFT market. With expectations of record-breaking highs, the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the rise of alternative cryptocurrencies and platforms, the upcoming years may indeed bring significant transformations to the blockchain industry.