The road to the approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has encountered its fair share of challenges and uncertainties. However, recent developments in the joint application by Ark Invest and 21Shares have shed some light on the potential future of spot Ethereum ETFs. This article delves into the details of the amended application, particularly the emphasis on cash-based methods and the inclusion of Ethereum staking.
One notable change in the amended application is the exclusion of in-kind creations and redemptions involving ETH. Financial firms permitted to purchase and redeem ETF shares will only have access to cash creations and redemptions. This variation from the precedent set by recent spot Bitcoin ETF approvals raises questions about the reasoning behind the decision.
While the exact motive behind the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) insistence on cash-based methods remains unclear, it has been suggested that handling cryptocurrencies under current U.S. regulations is challenging for market participants. Whether this approach will be the norm for spot Ethereum ETFs moving forward remains to be seen.
In addition to the focus on cash-based methods, the amended application introduces the concept of Ethereum staking. The filing indicates that 21Shares US LLC, the sponsor, intends to engage in staking activities, stating that they “generally expect to stake ether tokens from the Trust’s Cold Vault Balance.” While staking may yield rewards that can be treated as income, it is important to note that it also carries a risk of loss.
However, the proposed inclusion of staking in the final ETF proposal is not guaranteed. The section discussing staking in the filing is bracketed and uncertain, leaving room for interpretation. Market experts and analysts have differing views on whether the SEC will ultimately allow staking in spot Ethereum ETFs.
Despite the ongoing uncertainties surrounding spot Ethereum ETFs, the amendment by Ark Invest and 21Shares is considered a relatively positive development. The SEC recently extended deadlines for several other ETH ETFs from prominent firms such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Invesco Galaxy. In contrast, the amended application indicates progress in the approval process.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the SEC needs to make a decision on a spot Ethereum ETF by May 23. On that date, the agency must approve or reject VanEck’s proposal, and it is expected that decisions on other similar funds will also be made simultaneously. The outcome of these decisions will shape the future of spot Ethereum ETFs.
The approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in May remains uncertain, as indicated by different forecasts and expectations. Polymarket, a prediction market, reports 43% odds of approval in May. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes there is a 60% chance, while a JP Morgan member puts the odds at 50%. Expectations vary among financial institutions, with Standard Chartered Bank anticipating an approval in May, while TD Cowen does not expect approval until 2024.
These divergent perspectives highlight the complexity surrounding the approval process and the challenges of predicting regulatory decisions accurately. The outcome will undoubtedly have a significant impact on market sentiment and the future of Ethereum.
While the latest developments may have had some effect on investor sentiment, Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a slightly higher increase compared to the 24-hour market average. At the time of writing, ETH is up 1.9%, while the overall crypto market has seen a 1.5% increase. Bitcoin (BTC) has also gained 1.3% during this period.
As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum’s price movement and market sentiment play a crucial role in the broader crypto market. The ongoing pursuit of a spot Ethereum ETF undoubtedly contributes to the overall market dynamics and investor attention.
The amended joint application by Ark Invest and 21Shares for a spot Ethereum ETF sheds light on potential changes in the approval process. The focus on cash-based methods and the inclusion of Ethereum staking present new dimensions to consider. However, uncertainties remain, and diverse expectations surround the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in May. Investors and market participants eagerly await the SEC’s decision, as it will undoubtedly shape the future of Ethereum and the broader crypto market.
