The approval of a spot Ethereum ETF has been a subject of intense speculation and debate within the cryptocurrency community. Recent reports and statements from various sources have shed light on the position of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding this matter. This article aims to analyze the current situation and provide insights into the potential approval or rejection of a spot Ethereum ETF.
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported on Jan. 23 that there seems to be resistance within the SEC regarding the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. While it remains unclear whether the source cited by Terrett is a member of the SEC or an asset manager seeking approval, it is evident that the sentiment within the regulatory body is skeptical. SEC commissioner Hester Peirce, known for her pro-cryptocurrency stance, has advocated for a more streamlined decision-making process. However, the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was influenced by a legal victory obtained by Grayscale. Peirce criticized this approach, emphasizing the need for a regular way consideration rather than relying on court cases to compel action.
Despite the resistance within the SEC, asset managers responsible for issuing spot Ethereum ETFs remain optimistic about obtaining approval. One issuer confidently stated that the successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs would compel the SEC to approve Ethereum spot ETFs. Another unnamed issuer anticipated a spot Ethereum ETF to be launched by the end of the summer, citing the SEC’s previous approval of Ethereum futures ETFs and BlackRock’s track record of ETF approvals. The potential categorization of Ethereum as a commodity by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Ripple’s partial legal victory against the SEC were also mentioned as factors that could impact the SEC’s classification of cryptocurrency assets.
Public expectations regarding the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF vary. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts a 70% chance of approval in May, highlighting the growing demand for such investment products. On the other hand, JP Morgan executive Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has a more conservative outlook, suggesting a 50% chance of approval. Polymarket odds indicate a 53% likelihood of approval, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the decision.
The potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF remains uncertain, with conflicting perspectives and expectations. While there is resistance within the SEC and concerns regarding legal precedents, asset managers exhibit optimism and point to various factors in favor of approval. As the coming months unfold, indications of the SEC’s stance will become clearer, particularly through its engagement with S-1 registration statements and meetings with asset managers and exchanges. Whether an Ethereum ETF will be approved or not, it is evident that the cryptocurrency market eagerly awaits a decision that could significantly impact its trajectory.